By Masaki Kondo and Yasuhiko Seki - Jul 21, 2010
Japan’s 20-year bonds declined for a third day on speculation primary dealers cut holdings of the securities before the government auctions 1.1 trillion yen ($12.6 billion) of the debt tomorrow.
The bonds also dropped on speculation the Ministry of Finance will reduce the coupon at the sale from last month’s 2 percent. Ten-year bond futures rose for the first time in three days as the stronger yen clouded the outlook for corporate earnings and drove down Japanese shares.
“The coupon at tomorrow’s auction of 20-year bonds is likely to be lowered to 1.8 percent, the lowest since 2004,” said Akitsugu Bandou, senior economist at Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo. “I have doubts as to whether bonds with coupons this low will sell well.”
The yield on the 20-year bond rose one basis point to 1.805 percent as of 4:12 p.m. at Japan Bond Trading Co., the nation’s largest interdealer debt broker. The 2 percent security due June 2030 fell 0.151 yen to 102.855 yen.
The benchmark 10-year yield dropped half a basis point to 1.085 percent. Ten-year bond futures for September delivery gained 0.09 to 141.70 as of the afternoon close on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
The previous auction of 20-year securities on June 16 drew bids for 4.6 times the amount on offer, compared with a so- called bid-to-cover ratio of 3.93 at the May sale.
Primary dealers, which are required to bid at government debt sales, often reduce holdings of bonds before an auction in case prices decline before they can pass on the new securities.
Loan Demand
Bond futures gained on speculation falling appetite for loans will encourage banks to put more money into bonds.
An index of demand for loans to businesses slid to minus 17 in July from minus 10 three months ago, the Bank of Japan said today. The number has been negative for five quarters.
“Given weak corporate demand for new loans, underlying demand for government bonds from Japanese banks remains strong,” said RuiXue Xu , a strategist in Tokyo at RBS Securities Japan Ltd., part of Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.
Some investors also sold government bonds as the extra yield offered by shares over that of debt widened yesterday toward the most in a year.
The spread between dividend yields on the Nikkei 225 Stock Average and 10-year debt expanded to 61.77 basis points yesterday, approached the 66.29 basis points gap on July 1, which was the most since July 17, 2009.
“Equities are now looking to be more attractive than bonds, given such indicators as dividend yields,” said Ayako Sera, a strategist in Tokyo at Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co., which manages the equivalent of $310 billion. “While there is concern about the global recovery, we believe it will stay intact.”
The Nikkei 225 fell for a fourth day, losing 0.2 percent. The yen strengthened 0.4 percent to 87.17 per dollar approaching its seven-month of 86.27 set July 16.
To contact the reporters on this story: Masaki Kondo in Tokyo at mkondo3@bloomberg.net; Yasuhiko Seki in Tokyo at yseki5@bloomberg.net.
From Bloomberg published on July 21, 2010
Top performers' top funds
Commentary: A diverse group of funds is popular with market-beating advisers
July 16, 2010, 12:01 a.m. EDT
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- I have both good and not-so-good news to report after reviewing the advisers with the best long-term records.
First the good news: These advisers on balance do not believe that a major stock bear market is in store.
The not-as-good news: They are not betting very heavily on a strong bull market in stocks either.
I reached these conclusions upon compiling a list of the mutual funds that are most recommended by the advisers who have beaten a buy-and-hold in the stock market over the last 15 years. I chose such a long period because I wanted a time frame over which the stock market's performance was neither well below nor well above its long-term historical average. My hope was that I would thereby eliminate both perma-bears and perma-bulls from the group of market beaters.
A total of 31 advisory services were able to jump over the hurdle I had placed, and here are the mutual funds that are recommended by at least three of them right now -- listed in descending order of popularity.
Notice that the two funds that are at the top of this list are a gold fund and a bond fund, and that the next two most-popular include another bond fund and an international stock fund. The top four slots do not include any U.S. equity funds, in other words.
And of the remaining nine funds on the list, just four focus on the domestic equity market.
All in all, hardly a ringing endorsement for the notion that the stock market is going to skyrocket anytime soon. Yet, at the same time, we must note carefully that none of these most-recommended funds involves a bet that the stock market will decline.
If I were to try to distill a strategy from this list of the top performers' top funds, it would be to give the stock market the benefit of the doubt -- but only within the context of a very well-diversified portfolio.
Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.
From Market watch published on July 16, 2010, 12:01 a.m. EDT
July 16, 2010, 12:01 a.m. EDT
By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- I have both good and not-so-good news to report after reviewing the advisers with the best long-term records.
First the good news: These advisers on balance do not believe that a major stock bear market is in store.
I reached these conclusions upon compiling a list of the mutual funds that are most recommended by the advisers who have beaten a buy-and-hold in the stock market over the last 15 years. I chose such a long period because I wanted a time frame over which the stock market's performance was neither well below nor well above its long-term historical average. My hope was that I would thereby eliminate both perma-bears and perma-bulls from the group of market beaters.
A total of 31 advisory services were able to jump over the hurdle I had placed, and here are the mutual funds that are recommended by at least three of them right now -- listed in descending order of popularity.
Notice that the two funds that are at the top of this list are a gold fund and a bond fund, and that the next two most-popular include another bond fund and an international stock fund. The top four slots do not include any U.S. equity funds, in other words.
And of the remaining nine funds on the list, just four focus on the domestic equity market.
All in all, hardly a ringing endorsement for the notion that the stock market is going to skyrocket anytime soon. Yet, at the same time, we must note carefully that none of these most-recommended funds involves a bet that the stock market will decline.
If I were to try to distill a strategy from this list of the top performers' top funds, it would be to give the stock market the benefit of the doubt -- but only within the context of a very well-diversified portfolio.
Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.
From Market watch published on July 16, 2010, 12:01 a.m. EDT
Dealers Cut Bonds as Conviction in Rally Wanes: Credit Markets
July 14, 2010, 11:42 PM EDT
July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street’s biggest bond dealers have been cutting their holdings of corporate debt to the lowest since September, signaling limited conviction behind the credit market rally that began last month.
The 18 primary U.S. government debt dealers that trade directly with the Federal Reserve held $80.6 billion of corporate bonds with maturities greater than one year as of June 30, down 20 percent from this year’s high of $101.6 billion on Jan. 20, according to central bank data. The Fed will release primary dealer positions as of July 6 today.
The 66 percent decline in dealer holdings from a peak of $235 billion in October 2007 shows risk appetite never recovered from the credit crisis amid proposals for tighter regulation, increased capital requirements and on concern the global economy may slow. The reduced holdings may expose investors to wider price swings if sentiment turns negative, according to State Street Corp.’s William Cunningham in Boston.
“Liquidity is very scarce when you need it,” said Cunningham, head of credit strategies and fixed-income research at the investment unit of State Street, which oversees almost $2 trillion. “While the markets are operating, the depth of bids and the depth of liquidity is so shallow that you cannot rely on this if conditions get worse.”
The extra yield investors demand to own corporate bonds instead of Treasuries fell 1 basis point to 188 basis points, or 1.88 percentage points, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Corporate Index. The index has declined for five straight days, the longest stretch since the six days ended March 11. It’s fallen from 201 basis points on June 11. Yields declined to 3.929 percent.
Credit-Default Swaps
Elsewhere in credit markets, the cost of protecting corporate debt from default rose in the U.S. following the Federal Reserve’s assessment that the economic outlook has “softened.” Relative yields on emerging market bonds widened after tightening for six straight days.
Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s biggest carmaker, sold $1.75 billion of bonds backed by auto loans after boosting the offering from $1.25 billion. Lions Gate Entertainment Corp., the independent film and TV producer, approached creditors of ailing Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Inc. to help shape a plan to acquire the studio.
The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index, which investors use to hedge against losses on corporate debt or speculate on creditworthiness, rose 1.06 basis points to a mid- price of 108.63 basis points as of 7 p.m. in New York, according to Markit Group Ltd. The index was as high as 131.28 on June 9.
‘Softened Somewhat’
“The economic outlook had softened somewhat and a number of members saw the risks to the outlook as having shifted to the downside,” according to minutes released yesterday from the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. “The changes to the outlook were viewed as relatively modest and as not warranting policy accommodation beyond that already in place.”
In London, the Markit iTraxx Europe Index of swaps on 125 companies with investment-grade ratings fell 1.94 basis points to 113.21 basis points. It reached 141.25 on June 8. The Markit iTraxx Asia index of 50 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan jumped 4 basis points to 125 as of 8:17 a.m. in Hong Kong, according to Credit Agricole CIB.
The indexes typically decline as investor confidence improves and rise as it deteriorates. Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value if a borrower fails to meet its obligations, less the value of the defaulted debt. A basis point equals $1,000 annually on a contract protecting $10 million of debt.
Emerging Markets
The extra yield investors demand to own emerging market bonds instead of government debt rose 8 basis points to 305 basis points, according to index data from JPMorgan Chase & Co. The spread, down from 339 basis points on July 1, was as low as 229 on April 15 and as high as 359 on May 25.
The $587 million top-rated portion of Toyota’s offering, maturing in about 1.85 years, yields 18 basis points more than the benchmark interest rate, according to a person familiar with the transaction who declined to be identified because terms aren’t public.
Sales of asset-backed securities tied to vehicle debt represent about $34 billion of the $55 billion in bonds linked to consumer and business lending this year, according to Bank of America Corp. data. The Charlotte, North Carolina-based lender forecasts issuance of $60 billion for bonds backed by auto debt this year.
Most Traded
Bonds from Petroleos Mexicanos were the most actively traded U.S. corporate securities yesterday by dealers, with 139 trades of $1 million or more, followed by Morgan Stanley, with 114, Bloomberg data show. The Mexican state-owned oil company sold $2 billion of bonds in overseas markets July 13 after its benchmark yields fell to the lowest level in almost six months.
The most active in junk bonds was Ford Motor Co. with 87 trades. High-yield, high-risk debt is rated below Baa3 by Moody’s Investors Service and lower than BBB- by Standard & Poor’s.
UniCredit SpA, Italy’s biggest lender, issued 500 million euros ($637 million) of hybrid bonds that include features regulators said they no longer want in bank capital securities. The issue of the so-called Tier 1 notes signals rules being discussed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision may be watered down, according to analysts at CreditSights Inc. in London.
If UniCredit chooses not to redeem the undated notes after 10 years, it must pay an increased interest rate known as a step-up, the sale prospectus shows. Regulators said in December that bonds with step-up interest should no longer qualify as bank capital.
Lions Gate
Lions Gate Vice Chairman Michael Burns has been meeting in New York with investors who hold some of MGM’s $3.7 billion of debt, according to two people with knowledge of the situation who requested anonymity because the discussions are private.
Any agreement to buy Los Angeles-based MGM, which won another loan reprieve from creditors yesterday, would have to be approved by Carl Icahn, Lions Gate’s largest shareholder. He took a 10-day break from efforts to gain control of Vancouver- based Lions Gate’s board so the company could make a case for certain acquisitions, according to a regulatory filing. That standstill agreement expires on July 19. Debt-hobbled MGM is co- owner of the James Bond franchise.
Bank’s appetite for risk may remain in check until regulators finish implementing stricter regulations that may pass Congress this week, said William Dennehy, senior fixed- income money manager at Chicago-based Northern Trust Co., which has $150 billion in assets under management.
“Until all the regulatory uncertainty is ironed out, they’re not in a position to know how much capital they need to have on their balance sheets, how much capital support they’re going to need,” Dennehy said.
‘Leading Indicator’
The Fed data, while an imperfect measure, “is a leading indicator of dealer risk appetite, liquidity and volatility,” said J.J. McKoan, co-director of global credit investments in New York at AllianceBernstein LP, where he helps manage $199 billion in fixed-income assets.
Bank risk-taking may have increased in recent days as investor appetite returns, trading data suggests. The 10-day moving average of daily bond trades climbed to $14.6 billion on July 13, up from a six-month low of $13.6 billion on July 9, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.
“Liquidity comes and goes with risk appetite,” said Thanos Bardas, a managing director at Chicago-based Neuberger Berman LLC, which manages about $80 billion in fixed-income assets. “There’s more liquidity when spreads are narrowing and less when spreads are widening.”
--With assistance from Sarah Mulholland in New York, Craig Torres in Washington, Caroline Hyde in London, Ronald Grover and Michael White in Los Angeles, Ed Johnson in Sydney and Shelley Smith in Hong Kong. Editors: Alan Goldstein, Richard Bedard
To contact the reporters on this story: Shannon D. Harrington in New York at sharrington6@bloomberg.net; John Detrixhe in New York at jdetrixhe1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alan Goldstein at agoldstein5@bloomberg.net
From Bloomberg Businessweek Published on July 14, 2010, 11:42 PM EDT
July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street’s biggest bond dealers have been cutting their holdings of corporate debt to the lowest since September, signaling limited conviction behind the credit market rally that began last month.
The 18 primary U.S. government debt dealers that trade directly with the Federal Reserve held $80.6 billion of corporate bonds with maturities greater than one year as of June 30, down 20 percent from this year’s high of $101.6 billion on Jan. 20, according to central bank data. The Fed will release primary dealer positions as of July 6 today.
The 66 percent decline in dealer holdings from a peak of $235 billion in October 2007 shows risk appetite never recovered from the credit crisis amid proposals for tighter regulation, increased capital requirements and on concern the global economy may slow. The reduced holdings may expose investors to wider price swings if sentiment turns negative, according to State Street Corp.’s William Cunningham in Boston.
“Liquidity is very scarce when you need it,” said Cunningham, head of credit strategies and fixed-income research at the investment unit of State Street, which oversees almost $2 trillion. “While the markets are operating, the depth of bids and the depth of liquidity is so shallow that you cannot rely on this if conditions get worse.”
The extra yield investors demand to own corporate bonds instead of Treasuries fell 1 basis point to 188 basis points, or 1.88 percentage points, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Broad Market Corporate Index. The index has declined for five straight days, the longest stretch since the six days ended March 11. It’s fallen from 201 basis points on June 11. Yields declined to 3.929 percent.
Credit-Default Swaps
Elsewhere in credit markets, the cost of protecting corporate debt from default rose in the U.S. following the Federal Reserve’s assessment that the economic outlook has “softened.” Relative yields on emerging market bonds widened after tightening for six straight days.
Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s biggest carmaker, sold $1.75 billion of bonds backed by auto loans after boosting the offering from $1.25 billion. Lions Gate Entertainment Corp., the independent film and TV producer, approached creditors of ailing Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Inc. to help shape a plan to acquire the studio.
The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index, which investors use to hedge against losses on corporate debt or speculate on creditworthiness, rose 1.06 basis points to a mid- price of 108.63 basis points as of 7 p.m. in New York, according to Markit Group Ltd. The index was as high as 131.28 on June 9.
‘Softened Somewhat’
“The economic outlook had softened somewhat and a number of members saw the risks to the outlook as having shifted to the downside,” according to minutes released yesterday from the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. “The changes to the outlook were viewed as relatively modest and as not warranting policy accommodation beyond that already in place.”
In London, the Markit iTraxx Europe Index of swaps on 125 companies with investment-grade ratings fell 1.94 basis points to 113.21 basis points. It reached 141.25 on June 8. The Markit iTraxx Asia index of 50 investment-grade borrowers outside Japan jumped 4 basis points to 125 as of 8:17 a.m. in Hong Kong, according to Credit Agricole CIB.
The indexes typically decline as investor confidence improves and rise as it deteriorates. Credit-default swaps pay the buyer face value if a borrower fails to meet its obligations, less the value of the defaulted debt. A basis point equals $1,000 annually on a contract protecting $10 million of debt.
Emerging Markets
The extra yield investors demand to own emerging market bonds instead of government debt rose 8 basis points to 305 basis points, according to index data from JPMorgan Chase & Co. The spread, down from 339 basis points on July 1, was as low as 229 on April 15 and as high as 359 on May 25.
The $587 million top-rated portion of Toyota’s offering, maturing in about 1.85 years, yields 18 basis points more than the benchmark interest rate, according to a person familiar with the transaction who declined to be identified because terms aren’t public.
Sales of asset-backed securities tied to vehicle debt represent about $34 billion of the $55 billion in bonds linked to consumer and business lending this year, according to Bank of America Corp. data. The Charlotte, North Carolina-based lender forecasts issuance of $60 billion for bonds backed by auto debt this year.
Most Traded
Bonds from Petroleos Mexicanos were the most actively traded U.S. corporate securities yesterday by dealers, with 139 trades of $1 million or more, followed by Morgan Stanley, with 114, Bloomberg data show. The Mexican state-owned oil company sold $2 billion of bonds in overseas markets July 13 after its benchmark yields fell to the lowest level in almost six months.
The most active in junk bonds was Ford Motor Co. with 87 trades. High-yield, high-risk debt is rated below Baa3 by Moody’s Investors Service and lower than BBB- by Standard & Poor’s.
UniCredit SpA, Italy’s biggest lender, issued 500 million euros ($637 million) of hybrid bonds that include features regulators said they no longer want in bank capital securities. The issue of the so-called Tier 1 notes signals rules being discussed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision may be watered down, according to analysts at CreditSights Inc. in London.
If UniCredit chooses not to redeem the undated notes after 10 years, it must pay an increased interest rate known as a step-up, the sale prospectus shows. Regulators said in December that bonds with step-up interest should no longer qualify as bank capital.
Lions Gate
Lions Gate Vice Chairman Michael Burns has been meeting in New York with investors who hold some of MGM’s $3.7 billion of debt, according to two people with knowledge of the situation who requested anonymity because the discussions are private.
Any agreement to buy Los Angeles-based MGM, which won another loan reprieve from creditors yesterday, would have to be approved by Carl Icahn, Lions Gate’s largest shareholder. He took a 10-day break from efforts to gain control of Vancouver- based Lions Gate’s board so the company could make a case for certain acquisitions, according to a regulatory filing. That standstill agreement expires on July 19. Debt-hobbled MGM is co- owner of the James Bond franchise.
Bank’s appetite for risk may remain in check until regulators finish implementing stricter regulations that may pass Congress this week, said William Dennehy, senior fixed- income money manager at Chicago-based Northern Trust Co., which has $150 billion in assets under management.
“Until all the regulatory uncertainty is ironed out, they’re not in a position to know how much capital they need to have on their balance sheets, how much capital support they’re going to need,” Dennehy said.
‘Leading Indicator’
The Fed data, while an imperfect measure, “is a leading indicator of dealer risk appetite, liquidity and volatility,” said J.J. McKoan, co-director of global credit investments in New York at AllianceBernstein LP, where he helps manage $199 billion in fixed-income assets.
Bank risk-taking may have increased in recent days as investor appetite returns, trading data suggests. The 10-day moving average of daily bond trades climbed to $14.6 billion on July 13, up from a six-month low of $13.6 billion on July 9, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.
“Liquidity comes and goes with risk appetite,” said Thanos Bardas, a managing director at Chicago-based Neuberger Berman LLC, which manages about $80 billion in fixed-income assets. “There’s more liquidity when spreads are narrowing and less when spreads are widening.”
--With assistance from Sarah Mulholland in New York, Craig Torres in Washington, Caroline Hyde in London, Ronald Grover and Michael White in Los Angeles, Ed Johnson in Sydney and Shelley Smith in Hong Kong. Editors: Alan Goldstein, Richard Bedard
To contact the reporters on this story: Shannon D. Harrington in New York at sharrington6@bloomberg.net; John Detrixhe in New York at jdetrixhe1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alan Goldstein at agoldstein5@bloomberg.net
From Bloomberg Businessweek Published on July 14, 2010, 11:42 PM EDT
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)