Bonds Investment TV

Japanese Bonds Decline on U.S. Economy Prospects, Pimco Caution

July 13, 2010, 2:49 AM EDT

July 13 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s 10-year bonds fell amid speculation U.S. reports will show the world’s largest economy is improving, reducing demand for the relative safety of government debt.

Bonds dropped for the third time in four days before data economists said will show U.S. retail sales fell at a slower pace and the job market improved. Pacific Investment Management Co. sounded concern about continued demand for Japanese debt, while central bank data showed the nation’s public pension fund was a net seller last year. The Ministry of Finance sold 2.2 trillion yen ($24.8 billion) in five-year bonds today.

“We may see positive reports out of the U.S. this week, which could reduce excessive concerns about a double dip in the economy,” said Takashi Nishimura, an analyst in Tokyo at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co., a unit of Japan’s largest lender by assets.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond gained one basis point to 1.125 percent as of 3:28 p.m. in Tokyo at Japan Bond Trading Co., the nation’s largest interdealer debt broker. The yield fell as much as 3.5 basis points yesterday, the most since June 29.

The 1.1 percent security due June 2020 lost 0.089 yen to 99.776 yen. Ten-year bond futures for September delivery retreated 0.05 to close at 141.40 at the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

A Commerce Department report will show on July 14 that retail sales in the U.S. fell 0.3 percent in June after a 1.2 percent slide the previous month, according to economists’ projections compiled by Bloomberg. The number of Americans applying for jobless benefits likely dropped in the week ended July 10, a separate Bloomberg survey showed.

Pension Fund Sales

The lowest price at the sale of the 0.4 percent notes due in five years was 0.01 yen below the average, half that of the previous sale in June. The so-called tail is the difference between the lowest and the average price. The longer the tail, the less bids are clustered around the average price.

“The auction result is resilient, reflecting excess cash that is flooding domestic financial companies,” said Makoto Noji, a senior market analyst at Mizuho Securities Co. in Tokyo.

Japan’s public pension fund sold more government bonds than it bought for the first time in nine years, underscoring concern that an aging population will make domestic investors less able to finance state borrowings.

The fund sold a net 443.2 billion yen of Japanese government bonds in the year ended March 31, according to Bank of Japan data released last month. It held 79.5 trillion yen of the securities at the fiscal year end, 11.6 percent of the outstanding amount.

‘Some Problems’

“Once Japan is dependent upon non-Japanese investors to support the JGB market, we do foresee some problems,” said David Fisher, head of global product management for Pimco, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund.

“This is one of the main reasons why in the global bond portfolio we have very, very limited exposure to JGBs despite the fact that yields are not so terribly unattractive on a hedged basis,” Fisher said on a conference call from Tokyo today.

--With assistance from Yumi Ikeda in Tokyo. Editors: Rocky Swift, Nicholas Reynolds

To contact the reporters on this story: Masaki Kondo in Tokyo at mkondo3@bloomberg.net; Yoshiaki Nohara in Tokyo at ynohara1@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Rocky Swift at rswift5@bloomberg.net

From Bloomberg Businessweek published on July 13, 2010, 2:49 AM EDT

Best Investment Strategy And Asset Allocation Guide For 2010 - Cash, Stocks Or Bonds

By BrentBarett

The best investment strategy for this year 2010 will be different from the traditional investment and asset allocation strategy recommended previously by many investment brokers. Due to the faster changing markets, the best way to diversify your investments will be different from now onwards. Here are some basic investment guide on how to maximize your returns going forward.

You are probably familiar with the 40-60 balanced investment asset allocation recommended for most people, that is to put 60% of your investment money in high risk stocks and the remaining 40% into low risk bonds. Stocks and mutual funds are usually invested for high growth opportunities while bonds provide some stable income to offset the overall portfolio risks.

Balance Your Investment Asset Allocation

In theory, this asset allocation strategy allows any temporal losses in the stock investments to be compensated by the guaranteed gains in bonds income. Nevertheless, it is important to periodically review your current investment asset allocations to adjust according to your risk profile and financial goals.

If you have not reviewed your investment strategy and asset allocation, it could has changed dramatically because of the fast changing markets. It may have shifted into a 80% stocks / 20% bonds portfolio in terms of monetary value before you even realized it. Arrange for a session with your financial planner and decide whether you need to make any adjustment according to your current financial goals and risk appetite. If you are overly heavy into stocks or bonds, you might want to diversify in preparation for the fast changing 2010 investment landscape.

For people that wanted a more aggressive and risk taking investment strategy in order to get higher returns in 2010, sometimes the best asset allocation guide lines is still to incorporate some defensive elements such as cash and bonds. The stock market is already up by 50% in just 6 months while the bond prices also remain high due to the low interest rates. Gold prices is still continually breaking historically high levels, and many investors are pouring into emerging stock markets such as Vietnam and China.

There are many questions on the minds of investors worldwide. Is the financial crisis really over? When will the U.S. dollar stabilize to 2006 levels? Can economic growth be attained or dampened by further interest rates corrections etc? The world has not experienced more severe economic uncertainty since the 1940s and probably the best investment guide to ride out the uncertainty period and avoid making losses will be as follows.

Bonds Investment Strategy For 2010

If you are holding bonds and related funds, try to short your maturities and limit your exposure because when interest rates continue to rise, bond prices will nose dive and especially long term bonds will suffer the most. If you are holding long-term bonds, consider switching to short term and intermediate term bond funds instead. For sacrificing a little interest income, you can protect yourself from heavy losses with this allocation strategy.
Which Stocks And Mutual Funds To Buy In 2010

On the other hand, many feel that stocks and stock mutual funds have actually appreciated way too fast since 2009 and possibly due to heavy speculation. Most of these upward movements are due to larger portfolio fund managers that wanted to report in a higher return at year end 2009 as well as a large number of individual investors that are looking for to make higher returns compared to the low interest rates. Any slight unfavorable market news in 2010 can easily trigger panic selling by these investors and send stock prices down again. If you are holding a lot of stocks and funds, diversify your stock portfolio to those that closely track the market movements.
Investing In Money Market Mutual Funds

Do not forget about your cash assets parked in safe and highly liquid investments such as bank savings accounts, short term CDs (certificate of deposit), and money market securities etc. If you have lighten your asset allocation in stocks and bonds investments after a portfolio adjustment, consider holding money market mutual funds which is the best way to invest in money market securities for average investors. However, due to the low short term interest rates, many investors are not interest in these relatively safer investments.

In particular for 2010, prudent investors should not follow the herd in these times of high market uncertainty. Your best investment strategy is to safeguard your financial investment with a well thought out asset allocation balanced in stocks, bonds and cash money market securities. Meanwhile, keep more cash in liquid assets and diversify the entire portfolio. When you become more sure of the investment environment again, you can progressive get more aggressive with stock investments.

How Treasury Money Market Funds Work





From Hub Pages

5 great investments that aren't stocks

The urge to steer clear of the volatile market is understandable. Alternatives such as junk bonds and commodities are not without risk, but they may offer calmer rides.

By Catherine Holahan
MSN Money

Now is the time to buy stocks -- if you're Warren Buffett, with his iron stomach, ability to score deals and billions in the bank. But you're not Buffett. And you're shying away from stocks until a ride on the Dow industrials ($INDU) feels a bit less like a roller coaster.

So, what do you do with your money in the interim?

Treasury bills are unattractive. The 2.78% annual return on 10-year Treasurys likely won't keep pace with inflation, which was nearly 4% last year.

And, though real estate may look cheap right now, it is still a very risky business, given the amount of unsold homes out there.

MSN Money asked money managers and found five nonstock investments that seem attractive. Mind you, just because these investments are not stocks doesn't mean they're without risk. Yet they look like stable bets compared with stocks, which have set records for volatility in recent months.

Buy junk

Bonds seem less risky than equities at the moment. Bond investors can be wiped out if a company goes bankrupt, but they're paid, before stockholders, a share of whatever assets remain. Bonds don't have the potential to exponentially increase returns like stocks, but few stocks seem capable of delivering significant gains this year.

High-yield bonds -- aka junk -- offer the most potential. Many investors have fled junk bonds because they have a greater risk of default than higher-rated bonds, but junk also offers a potentially higher rate of return.

Even some blue-chip companies considered to have a much lower risk of default declared bankruptcy, so why buy bonds of companies known to have a high risk of default? After all, the default rate for high-yield bonds is already 10%, and bond rating agency Fitch Ratings anticipates it could rise as high as 18% this year.

Because the credit crunch has also made it more difficult for companies to issue bonds of any sort, as investors have shied away from risk. As a result, junk-bond prices -- which fall as yields on those bonds rise -- look artificially depressed, and individual investors are starting to notice.

"A very high proportion of the high-yield market is already trading at distressed levels," says Mariarosa Verde, a Fitch analyst. "Some investors may find the risk-reward balance attractive at this point."

Investors have poured nearly $3.5 billion into junk bonds since the beginning of 2009, according to EPFR Global, which tracks the market for funds trading in that $850 billion sector.

"I think people are scared, and they figure, 'Why be greedy and buy the equity and take huge risk?'" said Zachary Cooper, a portfolio manager in New York who specializes in fixed income. "People believe they are getting a historically equitylike yield in junk bonds and taking less risk."

Of all junk bonds, high-yield municipal bonds appear most promising, certified financial planner Andrew Horowitz says. Municipalities across the country have issued bonds because their tax revenues are down, in part, due to mortgage defaults. The $787 billion federal stimulus package should give these local governments an infusion of cash, making defaults on these bonds less likely.

For investors who don't want to pick through the trash of individual junk bonds, exchange-traded funds holding high-yield bonds are another opportunity. ETFs are funds that track a particular index or sector and are popular partly because they can give investors the ability to trade a group of different companies' shares as if they were a single stock.

This month, Van Eck Global of New York launched the Market Vectors High-Yield Municipal Index ETF (HYD, news, msgs), pegged to the performance of the Barclays Capital Municipal Custom High Yield Composite Index. About a fourth of the index is made up of investment-grade triple-B bonds. The other three-fourths are composed of non-investment-grade bonds.

Buy food

No matter how low the market goes, people have to eat. That is Horowitz's motto and one reason he's looking at the commodity markets.

"Nibbling on this kind of investment is an interesting play," Horowitz says. "A stock can go out of business; you can't do the same thing to a commodity. You can't bankrupt a commodity. People have to eat. That is the bottom line."

Last summer's spike in oil prices and the enthusiasm for biofuels sent prices of commodities such as corn, rice and soy skyrocketing in June and July. Then they crashed. Americans' grocery bills, however, didn't drop in tandem. Food prices ended the year up 5.8%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index.

Higher food prices coupled with steady demand should ultimately lead to a strong market for agricultural commodities, Horowitz says. One ETF in this area he likes is the PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC, news, msgs).

Buy money

The recently approved $787 billion stimulus package and the massive bailouts by governments across Europe and Asia would caution against buying currencies. Printing all that money, after all, has to be inflationary. Right?

Yes. But the worth of any currency is relative.

As long as the same inflationary pressures are at play the world over, it doesn't matter that the dollar will eventually be worth less -- as long as the values of the British pound, the Japanese yen or the European Union's euro have similarly declined.

Of course, inflation won't ultimately affect all currencies in the same way. Some countries have promised to sell more debt and print more money than others. The key is to bet on -- or against -- the right currency.

Horowitz is betting against the euro. He believes the multitude of countries that decide the monetary policies underpinning the euro's value will make the currency difficult to stabilize. As a result, he likes Market Vectors Double Short Euro (DRR, news, msgs), an exchange-traded note (similar to an ETF) that gains 2% for every 1% decline in the euro's value relative to the dollar. It also, importantly, loses twice as much for every gain in the euro's value.

Bet against Treasurys

It may seem counterintuitive to both bet on the dollar and against Treasurys. But making both moves is a way to hedge. That reduces your risk by giving you a way to make money when the dollar goes up or down (yet limits your upside, too). And reducing risk is one of the main reasons not to be in the stock market now. Right?

Likely, the dollar will strengthen in the short term, making Treasurys more palatable. But the dollar will weaken in the long run as investors' appetite for risk gradually returns. As the dollar's value decreases, Treasurys become less attractive. Hedging allows you to avoid having to call the moment when the dollar's transition will happen.

When the dollar does start weakening, investors will stop hoarding Treasurys and buy something -- anything -- capable of at least beating inflation. That's the argument for buying an ETF that gains as Treasury prices fall.

The argument for a weak dollar is made stronger by the huge federal stimulus package. Pumping all that money into the economy should fuel inflation, especially if the stimulus succeeds in spurring business and consumer spending as well as government largesse. The more inflation rises, the more people will want an asset capable of at least retaining their money's value. That makes Treasurys, with the current yields, even less attractive.

One short ETF, ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT, news, msgs), has risen 27% since a Dec. 30 low of $35.85 a share. The ETF is structured to go up twice the amount that the Lehman Bros. 20+ Year U.S. Treasury index goes down each day.
Keep cash
Here's a twist on a Wall Street adage: When there's blood in the streets, stuff your money in your mattress.

As depressing as that may sound, it's the mantra of many now-risk-averse investors. And as long as people are getting out of the market -- and staying out -- cash will be king.

That said, you needn't keep your money in a low-interest savings account. Money market accounts have higher interest rates and the same Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. protection as your average savings account.

Rates of return for most money market accounts, however, still don't beat last year's inflation rate of 3.85%. Some of the best ones offer just 2.5%, according to Bankrate.com, which tracks the rates offered by different banks across the country.

That rate is good as long as inflation remains near zero -- where it was in January -- or reverses course. But it's pretty awful if inflation returns the near 3% rate that has been the norm in the past decade.

In addition, unlike a plain old savings account, money market accounts don't let investors easily move their money into more-attractive arenas.

Still, with a money market account, you're not locked in for as long a period as, say, a 10-year Treasury bond. Most funds let you make several withdrawals a month.

At the time of publication, Catherine Holahan owned shares of the following exchange-traded fund mentioned in this article: ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury.


From MSN Central published on 2/27/2009 12:01 AM ET